NFL bettors show Bucs, Brady no respect for the entire winning season

NFL bettors show Bucs, Brady no respect for the entire winning season

Tom Brady must be done soon, right?  ... Right?

Tom Brady must be done soon, right? … Right?
photo: Getty Images

A story as old as time, a song as old as a rhyme: “Brady will fall off this year.”

Like Samuel L. Jackson’s character Jules at the end of “Pulp Fiction,” people have said that shit for years, but year after year Brady deniers come out of the woods to spew the worst, most disparaging nonsense. Whether Max Kellerman and his famous “cliff theory” in 2016, or the The Miami Dolphins have allegedly selected Ryan Fitzpatrick over Brady in 2020, the three-time MVP continued to defy expectations at every step. But, hey, a year after leading the league in yards, touchdowns and completions, while finishing second in MVP voting, THIS the season we see the decline!

According to Caesars’ Sportsbook editorial content writer Max Meyer, the Buccaneers are the most under 11.5 wins at Caesar’s with 87.8 percent of bettors believing Brady will not reach 12 wins in 2022.

Okay, so let’s break this down from a basic point of view. The first thing I want to note is that Brady was as confident in his abilities as he was willing to go to the Miami Dolphins, have a worse receiving corps, definitely a worse offensive line, definitely a worse defense, are in a tougher division, and have a rookie head coach – all at 45 years d age. Yes, I know he wanted to be with his family, but Brady also wants to win. He loves to win, and was willing to abandon a team he had won a Super Bowl with to play with an objectively worse offense in a tougher division. That should tell you all you need to know about his confidence in his abilities this season.

That’s just Brady though. There are other factors that go into how well a team will do in the upcoming season. Of course, the Buccaneers are worse off than they were a year ago. The team lost guard Alex Cappa, guard Ali Marpet, tight end Rob Gronkowski, and wide receiver Antonio Brown, and there is a good chance that wide receiver Chris Godwin will miss time and rehab an ACL tear. There are also injury concerns with left tackle Tristan Wirfs after going down ankle surgery during the playoffs last year. The Bucs may not have replaced all of those losses, but the additions of Russell Gage and Julio Jones minimize potential damage at the wide receiver position, and rookie second-round guard Luke Goedeke hopes to fill any holes which may be left. When Marpet retired. There are still some holes, but nothing insurmountable as long as the team’s talents don’t get injured.

More or less the defense remained the same. Sure, the the absence of Jordan Whitehead hurt, especially after the significant impact he showed last year, but again, that’s no loss the Bucs can’t overcome.

Let’s think about his schedule now. The Bucs will have eight games against playoff teams from 2021 this season (Cowboys, Bengals, 49ers, Cardinals, Rams, Packers, Chiefs, and Steelers). While only four of those games will be at home, the four on the road will be the Cowboys, Steelers, 49ers, and Cardinals – arguably the four worst teams on this list. I also don’t think it’s a stretch to say that each of these teams (except maybe the 49ers) got worse during the offseason. Additionally, the Cardinals game will take place in December. “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2” drops in late October, so we know Kyler Murray will not be at his full potential.

The Buccaneers have some more tough games though, especially against the Ravens, Browns, and Saints. Of course, the Bucs and Saints will be going home and home with each other since they are in the same division. As for the Browns and Ravens, the Bucs have to face Baltimore on a short week (Thursday Night Football), but the game will be in Tampa. We don’t know who the Browns quarterback will be when the Bucs face Cleveland in Cleveland, but even if Deshaun Watson is able to take the field for this game, it will be against a Bucs squad that is coming off of a some weeks. They will be fresh and relaxed. Meanwhile, the Browns will be coming off a road game against Buffalo. They may be quite beaten.

Sure, the Saints might have Brady’s number. So, let’s assume the Saints win both of those games. Brady struggles early in the seasons too, right? So, let’s assume he goes 2-2 to start the season. The Bucs will beat the Falcons, Steelers, and Panthers. Let’s say they lose to the Ravens and Rams. That’s four losses already, with the fifth coming against the Saints three weeks later. They’ll beat the Seahawks, they’ll probably beat the Browns because of everything I said in the last paragraph (also a great commute since the Bucs defense is stifling against the run), they’ll lose to the Saints, and they’ll beat the 49ers (if Trey Lance blows expectations out of the water), then they have got two tough games against the Bengals and Cardinals before finishing the season against the Panthers and Falcons. By my estimation, the floor for the Buccaneers is 10-7, a game and a half below where the over is set at Caesar’s. However, I’d say they beat the Saints once this year (which I don’t think is impossible). They probably beat the Cardinals anyway. They could also beat the Bengals, Rams, and Packers. They could go as high as 14-3, two and a half games higher than where the over is set.

I’m not guaranteeing the Bucs will win 12 or more games next season. Like I said, I can see them going as low as 10-7. However, for 87.8 percent of bettors to assume the Buccaneers won’t win 12 or more games would suggest the Bucs are in a much worse position now than they were a year ago. In his two years in Florida, the Bucs had a worst record of 11-5. That’s during a 16-game season. There is little chance they would have won 12 if they played a 17 game schedule in 2020.

I think 11.5 wins is a good place to put too much below the Bucs win total in 2022. That said, one would expect a near 50-50 split on the matter, not the close 90-10 we have right now. see. Brady has never fallen off in the past, and while that day will come eventually, what has he done to make us believe it’s coming this year?

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